Climate and Fire Scenario Uncertainty Dominate the Evaluation of Options for Conserving the Great Desert Skink

NCR Cadenhead; MR Kearney; D Moore; S McAlpin; BA Wintle

Journal article

Climate and Fire Scenario Uncertainty Dominate the Evaluation of Options for Conserving the Great Desert Skink

NCR Cadenhead, MR Kearney, D Moore, S McAlpin, BA Wintle

Conservation Letters | Published : 2016

DOI: 10.1111/conl.12202

Abstract

Fire regimes are predicted to change under climate change, with associated impacts on species and ecosystems. However, the magnitude and direction of regime changes are uncertain, as will be species’ responses. For many species, how they respond will determine their medium-long-term viability. We propagate fire regime and species’ response uncertainties through a 50-year viability analysis of the great desert skink, Liopholis kintorei, in central Australia, characterizing fire regime change under three scenarios. Species’ response uncertainty was characterized with three competing models based on fire and habitat variables, fitted to 11 years of occupancy data. We evaluate fire management op..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Michael Kearney Author

Brendan Wintle Author

Related Projects (1)

From prediction to adaptation: responding to rapid ecosystem shifts under climate change

Nobody knows exactly how climate change will affect the ecosystems on which we depend for our own existence, though negative impacts are wid..

Grants

Awarded by ARC

Awarded by Australian Research Council

Funding Acknowledgements

Australian Wildlife Conservancy provided access to Newhaven Wildlife Sanctuary, spatial data and logistical support for L. kintorei research; AWC staff Josef Schofield and Alex James provided field help and guidance in the initial stages of the project. Elia Pirtle and Bob Wolcott helped in the field. We are grateful to Michael Bode for his comments on the manuscript and generous advice throughout the project. Constructive criticisms from two anonymous reviewers substantially improved the manuscript. This work was supported by the Australia & Pacific Science Foundation (APSF) and the Australian Government's National Environment Research Program (NERP) Decisions Hub. BW is supported by an ARC Future Fellowship FT100100819, MK is supported by an ARC Postdoctoral Fellowship.